deepimpact
09-10 08:50 PM
It is a given that Demand is not stagnant . If it were , backlog would have been reduced by 140K this year alone.
Each year the new quota is 140K , as long as the new demand each year ~100K - the remaining 40K goes towards backlog elimination . We will know in the next inventory report what is "net" reduction for 2010. One can do rough math of latest inventory report and the current priority dates to arrive at ~approximate figure of 35-40K.
I think EB3 should get cleared in next 5 years - I think flood of new EB2 applications are overblown.
I think "peak demand" was between 2003 and 2007 . Good news is USCIS is no more wasting numbers .
Given that change to laws is almost impossible. We should sit tight and wait for 3-5 years.
The problem with your analysis is not every one in the backlog has equal access to excess of 35-40K visas available each year. Most of the excess comes from EB4,5,1 and 2ROW and all goes to EB2 I/C. EB3 ROW gets ~30K every year (42K- 4*2.8K).
Even if we are to assume that post 2007 the demand for EB2 I/C and EB3 is low then also it is ~ 15K for EB2 I/C and ~ 10K for EB3 ROW. But the way INA law is framed EB3 I (most backlogged with ~ 60K) will only get 2800 visa till either of EB2 I/C or EB3 row becomes current. And by current I mean real current, not July 2007. Using these numbers it will still take 4-5 for both EB2 I/C and EB3 Row to become current.
This is assuming low demand in all EB categories continue.
It will be only after 2014-15 that EB3I will get ~ 50K SOFAD(35K SOFAD which EB2 I/C was getting plus about 15K from EB3 ROW category). So in 2015 EB3 I will see a jump of ~ 4 yrs (2003-2007). So EB3I folks with PD after 2007 will have a relative wait time of ~ 8 yrs but folks from 2003-4 are looking at a 12-13 year wait unless reform like Recapture/STEM Degree holders & Dependents excluded from cap is passed.
Each year the new quota is 140K , as long as the new demand each year ~100K - the remaining 40K goes towards backlog elimination . We will know in the next inventory report what is "net" reduction for 2010. One can do rough math of latest inventory report and the current priority dates to arrive at ~approximate figure of 35-40K.
I think EB3 should get cleared in next 5 years - I think flood of new EB2 applications are overblown.
I think "peak demand" was between 2003 and 2007 . Good news is USCIS is no more wasting numbers .
Given that change to laws is almost impossible. We should sit tight and wait for 3-5 years.
The problem with your analysis is not every one in the backlog has equal access to excess of 35-40K visas available each year. Most of the excess comes from EB4,5,1 and 2ROW and all goes to EB2 I/C. EB3 ROW gets ~30K every year (42K- 4*2.8K).
Even if we are to assume that post 2007 the demand for EB2 I/C and EB3 is low then also it is ~ 15K for EB2 I/C and ~ 10K for EB3 ROW. But the way INA law is framed EB3 I (most backlogged with ~ 60K) will only get 2800 visa till either of EB2 I/C or EB3 row becomes current. And by current I mean real current, not July 2007. Using these numbers it will still take 4-5 for both EB2 I/C and EB3 Row to become current.
This is assuming low demand in all EB categories continue.
It will be only after 2014-15 that EB3I will get ~ 50K SOFAD(35K SOFAD which EB2 I/C was getting plus about 15K from EB3 ROW category). So in 2015 EB3 I will see a jump of ~ 4 yrs (2003-2007). So EB3I folks with PD after 2007 will have a relative wait time of ~ 8 yrs but folks from 2003-4 are looking at a 12-13 year wait unless reform like Recapture/STEM Degree holders & Dependents excluded from cap is passed.
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k_ek
11-22 12:36 PM
Hi guys
my question is same as in the previous post of Arun.
I wanted to know if the I 140 was approoved from previous employer and if u change the job and restart the gc again can u stiil use the old I 140 prority dates(even if the previous employer revoked the old I140).
thanx
kek
my question is same as in the previous post of Arun.
I wanted to know if the I 140 was approoved from previous employer and if u change the job and restart the gc again can u stiil use the old I 140 prority dates(even if the previous employer revoked the old I140).
thanx
kek
crystal
02-15 04:19 PM
Are you sure this is the reason why they have per country limits :confused:
Or you dont want that way :D
It is just that the policy is here since they don't want everyone (waiters, DMV clerks, etc) in Silicon Valley to be forced to learn Mandarin or Persian or whatever.
Or you dont want that way :D
It is just that the policy is here since they don't want everyone (waiters, DMV clerks, etc) in Silicon Valley to be forced to learn Mandarin or Persian or whatever.
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prince_waiting
09-27 11:27 AM
Cultural barriers are not so insurmountable in the US as those in the EU.
Even with the Blue Card can one work towards the naturalization process in order to become a citizen? In US you can surely do that after 5-6 years I guess.
US gives citizenship by birth to our children if they are born on US soil, EU countries do not do that. Switzerland goes to the extent of invloving local communities before deciding an applicant's request. Please refer to http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6992670.stm
However we can surely make lawmakers aware of the existing competition and argue to reform the EB immigration system.
Even with the Blue Card can one work towards the naturalization process in order to become a citizen? In US you can surely do that after 5-6 years I guess.
US gives citizenship by birth to our children if they are born on US soil, EU countries do not do that. Switzerland goes to the extent of invloving local communities before deciding an applicant's request. Please refer to http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6992670.stm
However we can surely make lawmakers aware of the existing competition and argue to reform the EB immigration system.
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Administrator2
04-20 07:38 PM
Thank you for offering to volunteer for calling members in CA. Now we need 2 more volunteers to give 30-45 minutes to make the phone calls. This is a very important initiative. Kindly send me a private message if you would like to volunteer.

spicy_guy
07-27 05:29 PM
Guys (and guns),
Need a suggestion on finding a job!
My friend has a master degree in India and worked in India for 6 months in Seimens before coming to US. Now she has EAD and would like to start working. Its been 3 years she left India and been idle.
She would like to start as a fresher / jr in IT though she has little experience.
When I asked a couple of guys, they suggested to approach Desi consulting companies.
From what I heard, they train and put up some fake exp and then apply for jobs (and of course need to sign a contract). But she doesn't like that.
I know a lot of people are in this situ too. I believe some of you have been here for a long time and have dealt with desi and US consulting companies. Some of you guys have good insight into these matters as well.
So what do you guys suggest?
Approaching Desi co is a good idea? or try for a full time employment with some US cos?
I was told that Desi cos know tricks of the trade. Not sure how true this is.
Or US consulting companies?
(I don't see so many job openings for freshers / juniors. Very very limited.)
Need a suggestion on finding a job!
My friend has a master degree in India and worked in India for 6 months in Seimens before coming to US. Now she has EAD and would like to start working. Its been 3 years she left India and been idle.
She would like to start as a fresher / jr in IT though she has little experience.
When I asked a couple of guys, they suggested to approach Desi consulting companies.
From what I heard, they train and put up some fake exp and then apply for jobs (and of course need to sign a contract). But she doesn't like that.
I know a lot of people are in this situ too. I believe some of you have been here for a long time and have dealt with desi and US consulting companies. Some of you guys have good insight into these matters as well.
So what do you guys suggest?
Approaching Desi co is a good idea? or try for a full time employment with some US cos?
I was told that Desi cos know tricks of the trade. Not sure how true this is.
Or US consulting companies?
(I don't see so many job openings for freshers / juniors. Very very limited.)
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sukhwinderd
02-02 01:58 PM
i can drive my minivan from zip code 32771 (orlando area). so 6 seats are vacant.
i can pick up members from daytona beach area, jacksonville etc. if someone is coming from south florida, tampa area they can stop by at orlando and we can car pool from orlando.
i need atleast one person who can drive at night, cause i cannot.
i can pick up members from daytona beach area, jacksonville etc. if someone is coming from south florida, tampa area they can stop by at orlando and we can car pool from orlando.
i need atleast one person who can drive at night, cause i cannot.
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greyhair
06-10 07:30 PM
For whatever reason, rumors are flying all over the Internet that the end of H1B and EAD employment authorization is at hand. This is complete nonsense. The purported basis for these rumors is an amendment offered in the Senate (S. Amdt. 4319) to a tax bill previously passed by the House (HR 4213). As written, this proposal would prohibit companies from filing H1B petitions if the company has laid off any employees in the last year. It would also void all existing H petitions for a company if the company lays off personnel.
Let's put this in context. Microsoft decides to lay off some of its loading dock personnel because they want to outsource that work. Under this proposal, they would then have to terminate all of their H1B engineers. That simply doesn't pass the laugh test.
Like most of Grassley's proposals, this amendment is pure idiocy. I suppose that's what happens when your parents are siblings. This bill has absolutely no chance of ever becoming law. .
It is unwise to be too sure of one's own wisdom. Pandering to the client base will not help the clients, it will only help the service provider.
Let's put this in context. Microsoft decides to lay off some of its loading dock personnel because they want to outsource that work. Under this proposal, they would then have to terminate all of their H1B engineers. That simply doesn't pass the laugh test.
Like most of Grassley's proposals, this amendment is pure idiocy. I suppose that's what happens when your parents are siblings. This bill has absolutely no chance of ever becoming law. .
It is unwise to be too sure of one's own wisdom. Pandering to the client base will not help the clients, it will only help the service provider.
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PD_Dec2002
07-05 12:22 PM
Just my $0.02:
I understand the frustration for IV to gather funds when it has so many members. But it's possible that IV has that many members because it is a free site.
If this becomes a paid site, you might see the number of members dwindle, and that's not a good idea because even if members don't financially contribute to IV, they do offer their perspectives/opinions/feedback/critique and help others. Those who want to financially contribute to IV will do so whether IV is a free or a paid site.
IMHO, it would be a mistake to make IV a paid site thinking that this will force members to financially contribute. Sure IV forums helped a lot with finding information about I-485 applications, but people have been filing I-485s on their own even before IV was in existence. Which is not to say, IV has no value, but I hope you see where I am going with this....if members don't want to contribute, then they won't. They will go to other forums like they used to before IV was in existence...which will be a step down, but at least they are holding on to their $20 or howmuchever.
Before replying to this, please read my disclaimer below. I have to add it given the fact how hot-headed/short-tempered members have been in the last few days where they will flame someone just because their opinions differ.
Thanks,
Jayant
Disclaimer: These are my opinions. You don't have to agree with them. If you disagree, just ignore them. I am not interested in justifying myself about anything that you might have to say. I would, however, welcome a civil and a healthy discussion.
I understand the frustration for IV to gather funds when it has so many members. But it's possible that IV has that many members because it is a free site.
If this becomes a paid site, you might see the number of members dwindle, and that's not a good idea because even if members don't financially contribute to IV, they do offer their perspectives/opinions/feedback/critique and help others. Those who want to financially contribute to IV will do so whether IV is a free or a paid site.
IMHO, it would be a mistake to make IV a paid site thinking that this will force members to financially contribute. Sure IV forums helped a lot with finding information about I-485 applications, but people have been filing I-485s on their own even before IV was in existence. Which is not to say, IV has no value, but I hope you see where I am going with this....if members don't want to contribute, then they won't. They will go to other forums like they used to before IV was in existence...which will be a step down, but at least they are holding on to their $20 or howmuchever.
Before replying to this, please read my disclaimer below. I have to add it given the fact how hot-headed/short-tempered members have been in the last few days where they will flame someone just because their opinions differ.
Thanks,
Jayant
Disclaimer: These are my opinions. You don't have to agree with them. If you disagree, just ignore them. I am not interested in justifying myself about anything that you might have to say. I would, however, welcome a civil and a healthy discussion.
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greyhair
03-12 11:44 AM
I completely agree with you. By the way, why are you not a donor?
I was been a donor in the past. But since then I noticed all this and have written several emails to IV asking them to convert IV access to paid donors only otherwise freeloaders like you are eating my lunch.
I was been a donor in the past. But since then I noticed all this and have written several emails to IV asking them to convert IV access to paid donors only otherwise freeloaders like you are eating my lunch.
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Canadian_Dream
12-11 02:43 PM
Since this has always been pushed through legilative means (S.1932), there might be a hurdle involved in using "Rulemaking" approach to this solution, nevertheless this idea should atleast be explored. Here is how rulemaking procedures work in Govt Agency: (Adding Flexibility is something that can be done through Rulemaking).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rulemaking
Adding flexibility. More detailed regulations allow for more nuanced approaches to various conditions than a single legislative standard could. Moreover, regulations tend to be more easily changed as new data or technologies emerge.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rulemaking
Adding flexibility. More detailed regulations allow for more nuanced approaches to various conditions than a single legislative standard could. Moreover, regulations tend to be more easily changed as new data or technologies emerge.
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rajesh_kamisetty
01-16 08:10 PM
Helping myself.
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DarkChild
03-12 09:03 AM
great work all of you guys, my choice was between grinch's and thirdworldman. i voted thirdworldman, but i just wanna say i know grinch hasn't done this a lot, so i think you've done an excellent job man :thumb:
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Khujaokutta
03-10 07:40 PM
I too agree that the flood gates will open soon...only that the gurkha who controls the gates is opening them so slowly that every bullietien there is no change or miniscule change.
We need to get the watchman to open the flood gates....:D...otherwise we will be saying this even after one year...that the gates will open soon.....when actually they open so little that its like a RAMSAY horror movie (Bandh DArwaza or something)
We need to get the watchman to open the flood gates....:D...otherwise we will be saying this even after one year...that the gates will open soon.....when actually they open so little that its like a RAMSAY horror movie (Bandh DArwaza or something)
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svr_76
06-10 01:15 PM
Our best bet is to partner with groups/org (hi-tech lobby) that have as members big firms that are impacted by this. This would give us a more directed approach on opposing.
I am trying to identify the group of immigrants impacted by this rule-making and was trying to highlight that the rule restricts DHS from approving visa petitions from Employers.
As such EADs are not filed by employers and moreover are not Visa application.
I am trying to identify the group of immigrants impacted by this rule-making and was trying to highlight that the rule restricts DHS from approving visa petitions from Employers.
As such EADs are not filed by employers and moreover are not Visa application.
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sweet23guyin
01-16 05:10 PM
As a consultant, I go through similar experience every other year/project. With family growing, I can't digest myself in full time job and settling down in my own house!
Nice post though, with good sense of humor and timing; interesting subject for a documentary
Nice post though, with good sense of humor and timing; interesting subject for a documentary
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praveenat11
09-24 09:40 PM
do we need to submit original affidavits for i-485 filing?
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bfadlia
09-10 05:55 PM
Guys,
The link isnt working for me too.
I hope things work in favor with this bill today, but if not, we must ask for Citizenship instead of Greencards. Anyone with me.,
We have all waited for 5-10 year and there are many who got it in one year and then Citizenship in 6-8 years from the day they got their GCs. That was the normal timeframe. But due to their inefficiency, we are waiting this much time. NOT our fault. Now dont you guys think we must ask for Citizenship.. I thought my case was too stressful, came 99, applied 04, waiting for 485 now, but I have seen so many many stories of ohter guys also here who suffered more. I feel we must ask them Citizenship. If we get, great, else atleast we end up with GC.
Anybody with me,
Thanks,
Sri.,
That is absolutely reasonable.
Canada does exactly that. You need 4 years for citizenship, but if you were in the country legally before getting permanent residence that is counted.
Unfortunately, US legislators don't care about what's reasonable, their only thinking is "will supporting this bill benefit or hurt my chances of re-election"
The link isnt working for me too.
I hope things work in favor with this bill today, but if not, we must ask for Citizenship instead of Greencards. Anyone with me.,
We have all waited for 5-10 year and there are many who got it in one year and then Citizenship in 6-8 years from the day they got their GCs. That was the normal timeframe. But due to their inefficiency, we are waiting this much time. NOT our fault. Now dont you guys think we must ask for Citizenship.. I thought my case was too stressful, came 99, applied 04, waiting for 485 now, but I have seen so many many stories of ohter guys also here who suffered more. I feel we must ask them Citizenship. If we get, great, else atleast we end up with GC.
Anybody with me,
Thanks,
Sri.,
That is absolutely reasonable.
Canada does exactly that. You need 4 years for citizenship, but if you were in the country legally before getting permanent residence that is counted.
Unfortunately, US legislators don't care about what's reasonable, their only thinking is "will supporting this bill benefit or hurt my chances of re-election"
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gjoe
12-11 06:26 PM
If US does not benefit from giving the visas, are they doing it as a part of social service?
Social Service GC is called as Asylum and that comes with added benefits like medicaid and social security checks for a few years.
Black Hole research GC is also called EB3 GC which comes with lot of uncertanities until you really get it :) Unfortunately many of us choose this type because of our math and science background :)
Social Service GC is called as Asylum and that comes with added benefits like medicaid and social security checks for a few years.
Black Hole research GC is also called EB3 GC which comes with lot of uncertanities until you really get it :) Unfortunately many of us choose this type because of our math and science background :)
vagish
04-04 03:03 PM
This bill would affect all of us if they apply these same rules when we try to exend or transfer out existing H1s. Does it(the bill) say anything about that?
sometimes they say don't wish, your wish might come true, we are fighting for retrogression thinking that it is the worst possible thing of our lifetime,
guess what if they pass a bill to reduce retrogression along with other provisions,
like the one's mentioned by Durbin's bill and then many would become ineligible for GC at the first place.
Once thing is sure, if the GC or H1B numbers are increased, it will come with some good enforcement measures and some other provisions which would tighten this whole process.
there won't be any free riders any more , many in america are becomming aware of this day by day.
thanks
sometimes they say don't wish, your wish might come true, we are fighting for retrogression thinking that it is the worst possible thing of our lifetime,
guess what if they pass a bill to reduce retrogression along with other provisions,
like the one's mentioned by Durbin's bill and then many would become ineligible for GC at the first place.
Once thing is sure, if the GC or H1B numbers are increased, it will come with some good enforcement measures and some other provisions which would tighten this whole process.
there won't be any free riders any more , many in america are becomming aware of this day by day.
thanks
desixp
06-11 02:26 PM
Done!
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